Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 102898.882759 108399.137114 113891.784504 119784.808622 125924.688402 132129.531543 138870.255134
2025-08-24 94553.444658 103029.630431 111722.985235 121294.558462 131526.001061 142123.854508 153919.791747
2025-08-31 87547.459103 98003.538094 108957.123062 121265.039080 134686.376548 148854.853449 164919.669529
2025-09-07 83227.594855 95279.901162 108128.900785 122809.521023 139080.020366 156521.591812 176593.078004
2025-09-14 79407.890783 92718.611253 107128.940998 123834.381290 142610.482682 163004.740089 186773.155396
2025-09-21 75603.835635 89884.101339 105562.036379 123977.617893 144938.739643 167976.107223 195129.153317
2025-09-28 72295.643542 87394.469976 104185.974252 124148.337807 147132.450561 172663.916012 203063.566041
2025-10-05 70389.487861 86379.367947 104369.195887 125987.877500 151135.004483 179334.559668 213213.272012
2025-10-12 68508.475151 85275.338966 104346.766290 127498.243059 154687.048128 185445.500670 222706.659361
2025-10-19 66408.381503 83803.292294 103798.380507 128307.449771 157354.239880 190490.337008 230948.584869
2025-10-26 64145.242406 82034.425620 102808.559355 128511.880057 159242.263722 194580.664613 238052.809060
2025-11-02 62221.060513 80591.511998 102132.415614 129021.478736 161436.316753 198993.024238 245519.732983
2025-11-09 60180.483988 78953.599978 101182.367290 129177.218385 163204.493695 202925.133729 252476.319621
2025-11-16 58936.449471 78249.867890 101326.568013 130628.839973 166517.127494 208698.892704 261657.030092
2025-11-23 57005.709703 76619.657757 100274.010025 130562.420651 167946.434186 212193.163056 268103.035576
2025-11-30 56032.272022 76153.218905 100623.751908 132194.836039 171433.734689 218166.402412 277558.536877
2025-12-07 54857.966599 75385.523484 100559.440411 133281.368755 174229.954412 223298.459872 286011.982938
2025-12-14 53310.102294 74086.077331 99780.938469 133433.052353 175837.199519 226963.623588 292677.856310
2025-12-21 51857.647401 72862.988240 99056.519735 133614.243056 177451.441028 230620.804152 299334.137572
2025-12-28 51279.740054 72758.501478 99739.226135 135567.447241 181285.209585 237026.497589 309409.201974
2026-01-04 50579.895493 72466.234340 100159.462491 137170.918524 184674.246405 242891.778111 318846.158741
2026-01-11 49593.099464 71760.430691 100017.571841 138029.924930 187106.314811 247565.552390 326819.169839
2026-01-18 48379.385101 70714.755636 99401.120740 138246.926856 188699.016465 251179.994232 333475.056925